pingreeman

PGM's Crystal Ball -  Point Decreases?

Discussion created by pingreeman on May 5, 2018
Latest reply on May 12, 2018 by brightlybob

It’s time to predict the new categories coming in August based on the preliminary category changes found here: https://members.marriott.com/tophotels/?scid=b7452ffa-9078-4bc1-a4c9-451f3971b51a

 

Shown are 91 venues, a mix of MR, SPG, and RC hotels. Using an SPG “conversion” of 3X points = 1 MR point, I have converted all venues into a Marriott Point Equivalent (MPE). Using the MPE, 44 venues actually go down in the number of points, 1 stays the same, and 46 go up in the number of points.

 

Because one can “lie with statistics”, let’s start with a misleading statement: the percentage of venues going up is 50.55%, going down 48.35%, and 1.10% remain unchanged. Sounds pretty good. However, looking at each current category and how those are categorized after the merger completes, is another story. Let’s look at the table:

Merger Categories.gif

If a venue is currently in these categories, then the points go up (orange):

4, 6, 7, 8, 9, SPG-2, SPG-3

Those that are essentially unchanged are (yellow):

SPG-5 & RC-3

The “winners” are those that go down in points (green):

5, RC-5, SPG-6, SPG7

 

Assuming the above category changes are sweeping across all of the existing Marriott categories, this will have the biggest "inflation rate" on category increases since I have been tracking annual category changes since 2009.

UPDATE 2018-05-07 - - - HUGE Pivot table error; ignore the above tables and comments. I even changed the subject of this post!

The data below is accurate - - 25 up, 58 down, 8 same when using the mid-point average of the range for SPG points and a 3X conversion to MR points.

  

Up/DownCount of Hotel NameSum of Old Category PointsSum of New Cat Points
Up259090001105000
Down5831820002695000
Same8295000295000
Grand Total9143860004095000

 

Outcomes